Buffalo Blizzard Brings Us Back to Earth
Coming off our 2nd best week of the season, Week 13 failed to keep the momentum going, as our model’s picks dropped -1.0% on average if you logged in just once and took every play at the recommended size.
Excluding the blizzard game in Buffalo, it was a positive week (+1.1%) capped off by an exciting Monday night win, as Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston tossed three touchdown passes in style to secure a +700 (7-to-1) payout.
Unfortunately exciting wins like Winston’s were offset by several heartbreaking bad beats, headlined by Daniel Carlson missing three consecutive field goal attempts on Black Friday — the ultimate crowd teaser after he made one early.
Overs ended the week at -0.9% after sizzling in Week 12, while the Unders dipped again slightly to -0.1%. Despite these negative returns, there were still valuable insights to be drawn from this week, and it’s important to put this into the context of the broader season.
Looking at performance by market, the Rush Yards picks led all categories, finishing green (+0.9%) for the 2nd consecutive week after struggling mid-season. Additionally, Pass Touchdown picks continued to outperform and contributed +0.7%, showing resilience with positive returns in 5 of the last 6 weeks. Despite Daniel Carlson’s disappointment on Friday, Field Goal props also stayed consistent, delivering a +0.6% return, tightening their grip as our #2 performing category this year. However, Pass Yards had a tough week coming in at -1.7%, while Touchdown Scorer props continued to bleed slow (-0.7%), though we remain optimistic they’ll rebound as this is an inherently volatile market.
Breaking down matchups, the Titans @ Commanders led with a return of +1.5%, followed by Steelers @ Bengals (+1.1%) and Bears @ Lions (+1.0%). On the other side of the spectrum, as mentioned in the open, 49ers @ Bills struggled the most, posting a return of -2.1%, as we underestimated the weather impact on San Francisco’s offense. Buccaneers @ Panthers also proved less predictable, dinging our weekly performance by -0.8%.
The top players for Week 13 included Caleb Williams (+1.5%), Jameis Winston (+1.1%), and Nelson Agholor (+1.0%). Rhamondre Stevenson (+0.9%) and Darnell Washington (+0.8%) also made meaningful contributions.
Looking at the year-to-date performance, we remain solidly in positive territory with an overall return of +7.3% for the 2024 season. The Unders are now up +17.0% on the year, partially offset by the Overs, which are down -9.7% for the year but trending up since Week 7.
See the visual breakdown of key performance trends below, with pick-by-pick performance details available in spreadsheet format at this link.
