Modest Gains, Consistent Trends
Week 14 brought a modest +0.8% average return, continuing a stretch of consistent performance. The Overs led with +1.8%, while the Unders dipped slightly at -1.0%. While not every week will deliver standout returns, this marks the sixth profitable week in the last eight, a testament to the strength and reliability of our model over time.
Matchup Highlights
The week’s top-performing matchup was Bengals @ Cowboys, which contributed +1.7% to our average return, followed by Jets @ Dolphins (+1.3%), and Bears @ 49ers (+1.1%). The model was less successful predicting Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.2%) and Jaguars @ Titans (-0.6%). Summing everything together, the result was a positive return, underscoring the benefit of spreading chips and diversying risk across matchups.
Market Performance
From a market perspective, the model nailed the QB/WR dynamic in Week 14, with Pass Yards and Receptions props contributing +2.6% and +2.4%, respectively. Receptions have now delivered +9.5% on the year, and they’re our #1 performing market through 14 weeks. Meanwhile, Touchdowns Scored (-1.8%) continue to struggle, while Field Goals Made (-0.7%) brought down the overall average this week after profiting in 4 of the 5 weeks prior.
It’s worth noting that while Touchdown Scorer props continue to disappoint, they were a top performing category for us last season. The year-over-year results volatility reflects the high-risk / high-reward nature of the props we’re playing in this market. While it’s tempting to scale back the picks, we believe in our process! It’s a long-term strategy, and eventually, the benefits should pull through.
Top Player Performances
On the player side, Tyreek Hill led the pack with +2.4%, followed by Brock Purdy (+2.2%) and Josh Allen (+1.4%). Contributions from Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow (both at +0.9%) further illustrate the impact of individual player performance on weekly returns. These insights highlight the importance of tracking key players, especially in markets like Receptions and Pass Yards.
For reference, here’s a link to pick-by-pick performance from Week 14 in spreadsheet format.
Year-to-Date Performance
Looking at the bigger picture, our model’s overall return for the season stands at +8.2%, with Unders leading at +16.1%. While Overs remain in the red at -7.9%, the recent performance in Overs markets shows signs of gradual improvement.
The model’s ability to deliver profits in six of the last eight weeks reflects a disciplined, data-driven approach, leaning into high-performing markets while adapting strategies for weaker ones.
Looking Ahead
As we approach Week 15, the goal remains to build on the consistency we’ve seen over the last two months. While challenges persist in certain markets, the model’s steady gains and ability to identify reliable opportunities provide a strong foundation for future success. Thank you for continuing to follow along—we’re excited to tackle the coming week with renewed focus.
Here’s to a strong Week 15!