A Week to Remember
Week 15 was a fantastic week for our model, delivering an average return of +9.8% to a hypothetical user who logged in just once and took every pick at the recommended size. The Overs contributed +6.0% to the weekly average, while the Unders weren’t far behind, returning +3.8%. This week’s balanced results pushed our year-to-date overall return to +17.9%, a testament to the model’s ability to adapt over the course of a season and deliver value consistently.
Matchup Highlights
Our best performing matchup this week was interestingly Ravens @ Giants, which contributed +4.3% to the overall return led by standout performance from Lamar Jackson. Meanwhile Bills @ Lions was an incredibly entertaining game that also aged well for the model, contributing +2.8% to our return, while Jets @ Jaguars added +1.1%. On the flip side, Rams @ 49ers proved less predictable with a -0.7% return, while Commanders @ Saints posted -0.8%. These results demonstrate the benefits of spreading our chips across multiple games to maximize upside while managing risk in a measured, disciplined manner each weekend.
Market Performance
Looking at performance by prop category, Receptions, our #1 performing market entering Week 15, didn’t disappoint, returning a stellar +3.6%. Meanwhile Rush Attempts profited for the 7th time in the last 9 weeks, contributing +2.4% this time. Honorable mention to Pass Yards, which continued to outperform, delivering +2.0% this week after leading all categories last week.
Unfortunately, Touchdowns Scorers had another challenging week, dampening overall returns by -1.7%. As mentioned in prior posts, TDs are a volatile market that we expect to pay off in the long-run, given the high-risk/high-reward nature of the props we’re targeting. Field Goals props also dipped slightly for the 2nd straight week, this time by -0.4%, though its year-to-date return remains positive at +5.3%.
Top Player Performances
As mentioned above, the model nailed Lamar Jackson’s MVP caliber performance in New York, contributing +2.4% to the overall weekly return, followed by Justice Hill (+1.7%) and Jalen Hurts (+1.5%). Josh Allen (+1.4%) and Brenton Strange (+1.0%) rounded out the top contributors.
For a detailed, pick-by-pick performance breakdown from Week 15, see this spreadsheet.
Year-to-Date Performance
With Week 15 in the books, our year-to-date overall return now stands at +17.9%, driven by the Unders, which are up +19.9% for the season. While the Overs remain in negative territory at -1.9%, they’re showing significant signs of recovery marked by an impressive run, outperforming Unders in the last few weeks.
The model’s ability to learn, adapt and produce consistent gains across multiple weeks is expected by our team, but it’s nice to see the results speak for themselves. Here’s a breakdown of the weekly performance by market:
Looking Ahead
Week 15’s success reinforces the importance of disciplined, data-driven strategies. As we head into Week 16, we’ll focus on building on these strong results while continuing to refine our approach in weaker areas.
We sincerely thank everyone for following along—your trust and engagement drive our commitment to delivering actionable insights every week.
Here’s to keeping the momentum going in Week 16!