Facing Challenges and Learning from Them
Week 10 was a tough one for our model, with an average return of -8.4% if you logged in just once at a random time and took every pick at the recommended size. Nearly all of that damage came Monday night (-7.8%), as Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s decision to bench veteran running back Raheem Mostert unexpectedly due to recent fumble trouble cost us badly – a decision our model (and crowd-sourced models feeding into it) didn’t anticipate.
The Overs struggled as a result, ending the week down -7.2%, while the Unders came in at -1.2%. It’s weeks like this that remind us that prediction models are fantastic guides, but they’re not flawless – especially in NFL football, which is notorious for being beautifully unpredictable at times. Despite the black eye, we’re taking it on the chin and remain committed to learning from these outcomes and improving.
Some matchups performed well, like Lions @ Texans (+1.3%) and Titans @ Chargers (+1.1%), and James Conner (+1.5%) led the way at a player level. Receiving Yards props also outperformed (+1.4%), while Rush Attempts struggled significantly at -3.3%, nearly all attributable to Raheem Mostert.
As always, you can view pick-by-pick performance in spreadsheet format here, and we’re working hard to get more details on the site soon.
Looking at the year-to-date performance, the Unders remain resilient delivering +18.9% on the year, while the Overs have dropped -17.9%. Despite the challenges this week, we’re excited to get back on the horse and right the ship.
Week 10 was clearly disappointing, especially after our strong Week 9, but we’re taking it in stride and committed to learning from it. Already, changes are being made to avoid too much correlated risk (which burned us Monday night) and capitalize on opportunities in Week 11 and beyond.
We appreciate your trust and patience as we work to improve. Sports are beautifully unpredictable at times, and our dedication to refining our model and finding value in the market remains unwavering. Let’s look ahead to Week 11 with optimism and focus on making a strong comeback!